Estimating the small area effects of austerity measures in the UK

Governments across Europe are starting to implement a range of cost-cutting and income generating programmes in order to re-balance their fiscal budgets following substantial investments in stabilising domestic financial institutions in 2008 and 2009. One method of doing this has been to increase tax rates such as the increase in VAT in the UK from 17.5% to 20% from January 1st 2011. In this paper we explore the different spatial impact of this VAT rise on household expenditure on public and private transport and communication technology from 2006 to 2016. We do this by combining three elements: an agent-based dynamic population microsimulation model that produces projected snapshots of the UK population in 2006, 2011 and 2016; an expenditure system model based on the familiar Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System approach; and synthetic small area census tables produced by projecting historical UK census data. Taken together these elements provide a toolkit for assessing the potential spatial impact of rising taxes or prices (or both) and we use them to compare small area projections of household expenditure under two scenarios. The first is a 'no intervention' scenario where prices and income align to UK government inflation forecasts and the second is a one-off non-reversed 2.5% increase in VAT on goods and services rated at 17.5% on 1st January 2011. We present results for different areas (rural vs urban/deprived vs affluent) and for different income groups within them and discuss the potential implications for the telecommunications industry and for the usage of public and private transport

Simulating the Impact on the Local Economy of Alternative Management Scenarios for Natural Areas

This working paper estimates the impact on the local economy of the High Garda Natural Park of alternative management scenarios for the West Garda Regional Forest. The local economy is specialized in tourist services and strongly linked to the tourist presence and their level of expenditure. We wish to investigate the effects of the participative management strategy, which takes into account users preferences and the non-participative strategy, using the SAM multiplier analysis. The local SAM has been constructed considering three sectors: agriculture, tourism and a third aggregate sector including all the other activities. The resident population has been divided into two categories: residents employed in the tourist sector and the remaining resident population. The SAM analysis shows that the accounting representation of the local economy is meaningful and that the participative program, if chosen by the central regional management, would be the most desirable program also at the local level.Tourism, SAM, Multiplier analysis

Paying for Biodiversity Conservation Services in Agricultural Landscapes

Adoption of improved silvopastoral practices in degraded pasture areas is thought to provide valuable local and global environmental benefits, including biodiversity conservation, However, these practices are insufficiently attractive to individual land users for them to adopt them spontaneously, particularly due to their high initial costs. This paper describes the contract mechanism developed for the Regional Integrated Silvopastoral Ecosystem Management Project, which is being implemented with financing from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The project is testing the use of the payment-for-service mechanism to encourage the adoption of silvopastoral practices in three countries of Central and South America: Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. The project has created a mechanism that pays land users for the global environmental services they are generating, so that the additional income stream makes the proposed practices privately profitable. Designing the mechanism required addressing issues such as (1) measuring the actual amount of environmental services being provided, so that appropriate payments can be made; (2) providing payments in a way that resulted in the desired change in land use; and (3) avoiding the creation of perverse incentives (for example, for land users to cut down existing trees so as to qualify for additional payments for tree planting). Two variants of the proposed payment mechanism are being tested, with participating land users assigned randomly to one or the other. The project also includes extensive monitoring of the effectiveness of each mechanism in stimulating adoption of the proposed measures and of the resulting impact on environmental services and on household welfare. These features, together with the three-country approach, will provide in the coming years a very rich dataset for testing the use of contract mechanisms for biodiversity conservation.Payments for Environmental Services, Contract design, Biodiversity, Conservation, Silvopastoral, Agroforestry

Were we really all in it together? The distributional effects of the UK Coalition government's tax-benefit policy changes

This paper examines the distributional impacts of the changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct (but not indirect) taxes between the systems in place in May 2010 at the time of the Election and in 2014/15. It also looks ahead to the longer-term effects of already announced changes and plans, such as the complete introduction of Universal Credit and changes to the ways benefits, pensions and tax brackets are changed (indexed) from year to year, modelling what effects these would have by 2019/20

Were we really all in it together? The distributional effects of the 2010-2015 UK Coalition government's tax-benefit policy changes: an end-of-term update

This paper examines the distributional impacts of the changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct taxes between the UK Elections in May 2010 and in May 2015. It also looks ahead to the longer-term effects of changes and plans that were announced by the 2010-2015 Coalition government, such as the complete introduction of Universal Credit and changes to the ways benefits, pensions and tax brackets are indexed from year to year, modelling what effects these would have after five more years. It shows that the changes 2010-15 did not have a common effect on all household incomes and nor did the direct tax-benefit changes contribute to deficit reduction. In effect reductions in benefits and tax credits financed part of the cuts in direct taxes. We find that the relative extent to which the changes most favoured the rich or the poor is sensitive to a wide range of analytical choices and assumptions, but under most sets of assumptions the main gains were in the upper middle of the income distribution and the main losers were at the bottom and those close to, but not at, the very top. Across most of the distribution the impact of the changes was regressive. Looking forward to the effects that Coalition policies would have had by 2020 we find a more strongly regressive picture but with open questions about the effect of Universal Credit on those not currently receiving their entitlements to means-tested payments, and so potentially increasing some of the lowest incomes

Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea

This paper presents an innovative web-based decision support system to facilitate emergency management in the case of oil spill accidents, called WITOIL (Where Is The Oil). The system can be applied to create a forecast of oil spill events, evaluate uncertainty of the predictions, and calculate hazards based on historical meteo-oceanographic datasets. To compute the oil transport and transformation, WITOIL uses the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model forced by operational meteo-oceanographic services. Results of the modeling are visualized through Google Maps. A special application for Android is designed to provide mobile access for competent authorities, technical and scientific institutions, and citizens

Sarcopenic Dysphagia, Malnutrition, and Oral Frailty in Elderly: A Comprehensive Review.

Frailty is a highly prevalent condition in the elderly that has been increasingly considered as a crucial public health issue, due to the strict correlation with a higher risk of fragility fractures, hospitalization, and mortality. Among the age-related diseases, sarcopenia and dysphagia are two common pathological conditions in frail older people and could coexist leading to dehydration and malnutrition in these subjects. "Sarcopenic dysphagia" is a complex condition characterized by deglutition impairment due to the loss of mass and strength of swallowing muscles and might be also related to poor oral health status. Moreover, the aging process is strictly related to poor oral health status due to direct impairment of the immune system and wound healing and physical and cognitive impairment might indirectly influence older people's ability to carry out adequate oral hygiene. Therefore, poor oral health might affect nutrient intake, leading to malnutrition and, consequently, to frailty. In this scenario, sarcopenia, dysphagia, and oral health are closely linked sharing common pathophysiological pathways, disabling sequelae, and frailty. Thus, the aim of the present comprehensive review is to describe the correlation among sarcopenic dysphagia, malnutrition, and oral frailty, characterizing their phenotypically overlapping features, to propose a comprehensive and effective management of elderly frail subjects

Intratumoral injection of TLR9 agonist promotes an immunopermissive microenvironment transition and causes cooperative antitumor activity in combination with anti-PD1 in pancreatic cancer

Background: Complex tumor and immune microenvironment render pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) resistant to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Therefore, a strategy to convert the immune hostile into an immunopermissive tumor is required. Recent studies showed that intratumoral injection of Toll-like receptor 9 agonist IMO-2125 primes the adaptive immune response. Phase I and II trials with intratumoral IMO-2125 demonstrated its safety and antitumoral activity. Methods: We generated an array of preclinical models by orthotopically engrafting PDAC-derived cell lines in syngeneic mice and categorized them as high, low and no immunogenic potential, based on the ability of tumor to evoke T lymphocyte or NK cell response. To test the antitumor efficacy of IMO-2125 on locally treated and distant sites, we engrafted cancer cells on both flanks of syngeneic mice and treated them with intratumoral IMO-2125 or vehicle, alone or in combination with anti-PD1 ICI. Tumor tissues and systemic immunity were analyzed by transcriptomic, cytofluorimetric and immunohistochemistry analysis. Results: We demonstrated that intratumoral IMO-2125 as single agent triggers immune system response to kill local and distant tumors in a selected high immunogenic subtype affecting tumor growth and mice survival. Remarkably, intratumoral IMO-2125 in combination with systemic anti-PD1 causes a potent antitumor effect on primary injected and distant sites also in pancreatic cancer models with low immunogenic potential, preceded by a transition toward an immunopermissive microenvironment, with increase in tumor-infiltrating dendritic and T cells in tumor and lymph nodes. Conclusion: We demonstrated a potent antitumor activity of IMO-2125 and anti-PD1 combination in immunotherapy-resistant PDAC models through the modulation of immune microenvironment, providing the rationale to translate this strategy into a clinical setting

Skills of the user-relevant ocean indicators

This document demonstrates the capability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict observable and user-relevant ocean climate indicators